STORM FORECAST
VALID Sun 05 Mar 06:00 - Mon 06 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 04 Mar 18:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

A threat level 1 is forecast across the southwestern and central Mediterranean regions.

SYNOPSIS

Main feature will be upper trough expected over central Iberia by Sunday 00Z ... which will rapidly move into the central Mediterranean as it phases with N-European longwave trough. Strong ... wavy frontal boundary will be stretching from SW Spain across the NW Mediterranean into the Ukraine on Sunday 06Z per GFS 12Z. Air mass S of this boundary should become weakly unstable as strong DCVA-related lift overspreads the air mass. Deeply mixed polar air is present N of the boundary.

DISCUSSION

...SW and central Mediterranean...
Degree of instability ahead of the Mediterranean vort max is somewhat uncertain ... with models differing in depth of the unstable layer. Thinking is that at least isolated/scattered TSTMS should persist over the W and N Mediterranean along and ahead of the main cold front. Shear will be immense ... with more than 25 m/s at the 850 hPa level and 35+ m/s at 500 hPa. This should support an isolated/shallow mesocyclone or to ... and possibly brief/small bow echoes ... capable of severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes.

In the postfrontal environment shallow convection could form ... which may also produce a few lighting strikes. Shallow nature of convection should limit severe threat with this activity.

...North Sea and North-Sea coastal areas...
Convection in the polar air may again be accompanied by isolated lightning strikes ... especially over the North Sea and the N coasts of Germany and the Netherlands. Coverage should be too low however for a TSTM area.

#